Welcome to the PGA Tour in 2024. We have a 69-player field with no cut at the Wells Fargo, and an alternate field in Myrtle Beach for an inaugural event. To top it off, Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Åberg are both missing Quail Hollow. I can’t imagine fans will be tuned in much this week with the PGA Championship on deck. Nonetheless, we must look for value to bet each week. So what does it take to succeed at Quail Hollow? It’s pretty simple: the course suits bombers off the tee who excel with mid-irons and long irons.
Let’s take a look at three players to target:
Max Homa Top 20 -110
Homa is a great fit for Quail Hollow, as he won here in 2019 and finished 8th a year ago. Max has quietly added some distance over the last year, now ranking above average in this field. When you add that to an already stellar iron game and a demonstrated ability to play well on difficult courses, I expect to see Homa in contention this week.
Cameron Young Top 20 +105
Cam Young is one of the few players in this field to rank inside the top 15 in both driving distance and iron play outside 175 yards. Whenever he plays on a course that allows him to use his driver often while also featuring difficult scoring conditions, he lurks around the front page of the leaderboard. He already has five top-16 finishes in 2024, some of which came against great fields (Riviera, Masters). Yes, I understand he has only played here once, finishing 59th. But I expect another top-20 finish this week as Quail Hollow should be a great fit for him.
Sahith Theegala Top 20 +110
Theegala has a great combination of skills for this week. He is above average in distance off the tee, above average with his mid-to-long irons, and leads the field in putting. Theegala excels on courses that don’t punish slightly errant drives, as he is one of the best players on Tour on approach from the rough. Similar to Young, he has played here only once, finishing 56th, but that’s part of the reason why we are getting a cheap price on him here. He already has five top-nine finishes this season, including three signature events and the Players.