The RBC Canadian Open is in a really difficult spot on the PGA Tour schedule, as the next three weeks consist of two signature events (Memorial, Travelers) and the U.S. Open. That calendar placement leads to this week’s very weak field, and it could also make for some abnormal results from the top players who actually are in attendance as they look ahead to bigger events on the horizon.

It means we really have to dig in to figure out who will have the best chance to succeed this week at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. This may sound overly simplistic, but I’m targeting players who are elite with their irons and have a high level of consistency in their historical results. Taking all that into account I see only two valuable top-20 bets this week, so that’s what I’m giving out. (I’m not going to try and force a third bet when I don’t see value. )

Corey Conners Top 20 +115

The Canadian Open, as you’d expect for a native son, is one of Corey’s most important events each year, meaning we should expect maximum focus and effort as Conners tries to make it two years in a row with a Canadian champ. In 13 events in 2024, he has made every cut (good!) but finished inside the top 20 only three times (not as good.) This is part of the reason we are getting the +115 price this week. However, he has finished 33rd or better in nine of those 13 events, the majority of which came in significantly stronger fields than we see this week. 

Conners is regarded as a great iron player for a reason. He has gained at least seven strokes on approach in an event seven times in his entire career. The first five occurrences were:

– 2019 Sony (3rd)

– 2019 Valero (Win)

– 2021 Arnold Palmer (3rd)

– 2022 Memorial (13th)

– 2023 Valero (Win)

So that’s five times across a four year stretch. The other two occurrences? How about his last two events! However, those resulted in less than stellar finishes of 13th at Wells Fargo and 26th at the PGA due to substandard performance with his short game. The point: Conners is striking his irons the best he ever has. Combine that ball-striking with the weak field and his desire to contend and we have some value at +115 for a top 20 this week

Alex Noren Top 20 +115

Noren has quietly put together an incredible 2024 campaign. Over his last eight events he has finished no worse than 24th, and many of those finishes came against much stronger fields than this. Similar to Conners, he is striking his irons beautifully. His last start at the PGA saw him gain the second-most strokes on approach that he’s managed in one event over his last six years! Noren’s elite consistency and solid approach play should keep him in contention this week and give us a great chance to cash a top-20 wager at +115.