The PGA Tour heads back to Southern California this week for the Genesis Invitational. This event is normally held at Riviera Country Club, but has been relocated to the South Course at Torrey Pines due to the recent Los Angeles wildfires.

The 72-player field will face a challenging examination in a long course with deep rough, not to mention the potential for wind and rain. This puts an extreme emphasis on distance off the tee moreso than maybe any other week on Tour. You simply can’t hit mid-irons very well (if at all) out of thick wet rough, so the bombers with shorter clubs will have an advantage. 

Let’s take a look at two bets to make this week that target some big hitters:

Ludvig Aberg Top 20 +100

This is a great buy-low spot for Aberg. Yes, he has been out the last few weeks due to sickness but reports say that he is fully recovered from the illness that caused him to go from round one leader at the Farmers to barely able to stand upright by Sunday. If Aberg was healthy and finished near the top of the leaderboard that week, this price would be way higher, around -160. Aberg is an elite driver of the ball and has gained strokes off the tee in every event over the last eight months. We only have 72 players to choose from and about 25 of them have almost no shot to contend due to a lack of distance. So, we’re basically looking at finishing inside the top 20 out of about 47 players. I will gladly take my chance with Aberg, who finished inside the top 20 in 24 of his last 31 events prior to his illness, many of which were in full-field events.

Taylor Pendrith Low Canadian +180

Not many people realize how elite the ballstriking from Pendrith has been in 2025. He is gaining 1.36 strokes per round combined off the tee and on approach. How does that compare to top players from the 2024 season? That would have ranked second behind only Scottie Scheffler. Pendrith has finished 13th or better in three of his four starts in 2025. The crazy thing is that Pendrith, who historically is an above-average putter, has actually lost strokes putting in every event in 2025. If he had his normal putting prowess, he may have a win in 2025 and would be nowhere near this price. Pendrith fits this course perfectly as he bombs it off the tee. He has also finished 16th or better in three of his four previous appearances at Torrey Pines.

Now let’s dig into his opponents. He faces off against four fellow Canadians: Corey Conners, Nick Taylor, Adam Hadwin, and Mackenzie Hughes.

Conners’s ballstriking in 2025 has been nowhere near where he has been historically. This has led to a 74th at WM Phoenix Open, 65th at Pebble Beach, and a missed cut at the Sony Open. His best finish in three starts at the Farmers at Torrey Pines is 29th.

Nick Taylor has been playing great in 2025, but I can’t imagine a worse course fit. He is the fourth shortest hitter in the field and hasn’t finished better than 30th in any of his five appearances at the Farmers, and event he’s avoided since 2022.

Similar to Taylor, Hadwin is below average in distance off the tee. However, Hadwin is also below average with his approach play. This double whammy will make it extremely difficult for him to put four good rounds together this week. He did finish ninth last week at Phoenix Open, which was his first top 25 since June 2024. However, that can be a bit of a false positive as Hadwin loves desert golf and has had great success at the WM, even when he’s not in form. In seven starts at the Farmers, he only has one top-30 finish. 

Mackenzie Hughes hasn’t finished better than 36th in any of the four events he has played in 2025. He has played eight events at Torrey Pines and has finished inside the top 50 only twice.

Go with Pendrith.