by We’ve reached the 13th edition of my weekly pro golf update, and today we’re looking at the players whose stocks have moved up and down so far this season. The majors are almost upon us, and the pro golf ranks have changed a little bit since we last looked at stock movers in January. We’ll also zoom in on the progress of one of the most exciting players in the sport and answer a reader-submitted question.
Stocks Up, Stocks Down
A few notes:
Sepp Straka is a damn good player. I have a hard time viewing him as a serious threat to win a major championship, but each week he continues to stripe his irons, the chances increase. He’s ranked fourth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, with a strength of schedule that isn’t too shabby. Sepp has six top 15 finishes in his last eight starts, including a win at the American Express. His stock is way up.
There’s no sugar coating it: Cameron Young is playing terrible golf this year – except for in the metaverse, I suppose. Despite getting to play the friendly fairways of Kapalua, Young ranks 179th out of 183 qualified golfers on Tour in driving accuracy, hitting just 48% of his fairways. He’s missed four of his last five cuts, and his ballstriking isn’t showing signs of improving any time soon. My concern is high. His inevitable T-7 at Quail Hollow will look nice on Wikipedia, though.
When you’re getting benched on NYGC for Rickie Fowler and Cam Young, things can’t be good. We might need to have a conversation about Matt Fitzpatrick, who hasn’t looked like a U.S. Open champion in quite some time. He has just one top 10 finish since last year’s Masters – a T-5 at the Memorial last June. The short game and putting has remained solid, as always, but the ballstriking isn’t pretty right now. A top 10 player in the world just over a year ago, Fitzpatrick is in danger of missing the Ryder Cup this upcoming September unless he turns things around soon.
Player Spotlight: Justin Thomas
As we enter the swing of major championship season, Justin Thomas’ resurgence up the world rankings has been one of the most impressive developments of 2025.
The key to his resurgence? JT’s iron play has elevated back to elite form, but his putting has been the biggest positive improvement, vaulting him back to being a top player in the world. Justin is gaining 0.33 strokes per round putting after losing nearly half of a stroke per round in 2024. Should he finish the year at +0.33 SG: Putting per round, this would be the best putting season of his career. More than likely, JT’s putting numbers will regress towards Tour average, but this year has been a substantial improvement over the last five years. And in case you’re wondering if JT always putts well through the Florida Swing and then his numbers drop off, that hasn’t been the case historically. I don’t know how long this season’s putting improvement will persist, but there’s been real improvement so far this season.
As far as other parts of his game go, I wouldn’t have any concerns about the iron play or short game. The around-the-green play looks sharp again this year, per usual, and he’s having his best season with his irons since 2021. He’s ranked 10th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach at +0.83 per round, and there are a couple golfers ranked ahead of him who have benefitted from playing weaker fields, with all due respect to Henrik Norlander.
The biggest question mark right now with JT is the driving accuracy. If he can keep the golf ball on the planet, he’ll find himself in contention regularly. JT has a tendency to spray the ball and it’s actively preventing him from winning golf tournaments. On Sunday, he got loose off the tee with two tee shots on his last three holes, including the widest left tee shot of the day on 18. That led to a bogey, and he lost the golf tournament by one.
Until the off-the-tee errancy gets fixed, JT should be viewed as a clear step below the Scheffler-McIlroy level of play. The sprayed tee shots give up shots to the field that Thomas can’t afford to give away to the best players in the world. If Scottie or Rory shows up to a major with their A-game, I don’t think JT can quite keep up. However, he isn’t too far behind, and I didn’t expect him to get back to this level, at least this fast.
I’d still take more than two golfers over JT to win a major this year, but I think it’s reasonable to slot him in around 5-8, and I do like his chances of winning a tournament this year. I’ll say he wins in Memphis.
What a turnaround this season for one of the craftiest players in all of golf. He’s been gaining with the putter, a fickle piece of the game. I’m more keen to see how he controls the driver on a golf course like Augusta National, which demands much more accuracy than how it is often described.
Reader-Submitted Question:
Reader: Are you ready to apologize to Viktor Hovland?
Answer: I assume this in reference to labeling him “Just a Guy” back at the beginning of the year. The short answer to your question is No. Viktor Hovland should be measured against the best players in the world, and winning a Valspar doesn’t make you one of the best players in the world. Sam Burns has won the Valspar twice, and he is definitely Just a Guy.
Still, I am encouraged by Hovland’s victory. Winning on the PGA Tour is difficult and the Valspar field was reasonably strong. I’m not trying to dump water on the accomplishment. I just need to see strong results in major championships before retracting my Hovland take.
Within that vein, here’s an impressive Hovland stat I stumbled across in doing some major championship research. Hovland made his major championship debut in 2019, so here are the players who have been within three of the lead the most times entering the final round of major championships since 2019.
Hovland has been in the mix about as often as anybody since he began playing majors. It’s hard to look at the above numbers and feel too down about Viktor’s game. The biggest question mark, however, is his short game.
In last week’s pro golf update, I tiered the best short game players in the world. I have a lot of takeaways from that exercise, but arguably the biggest was how much major championship success was represented in those tiers. Unless you’re playing a soft setup, you need a complete game to win a major championship. Viktor doesn’t have one.
I’m reminded of the 2023 Masters, where rain softened conditions over the first few days. Sunday played the firmest of any of the four days and required the most touch around the greens. Hovland entered the final round three shots back and ultimately finished T-7 – six shots off the winning score – after a closing 74, a round that included a couple of ugly shots from around the greens.
His short game is a glaring weakness in an otherwise robust skill set. The ballstriking is brilliant, and he’s a great putter. I’m skeptical that his around-the-green play can hold up for four days on a legitimate major championship setup. Add in some inconsistent recent ballstriking and outspoken discomfort with his swing, and I think the right reaction to the Valspar win is to keep tempered expectations for Hovland.
I’d love to be proven wrong; Vik’s a fascinating figure and an easy golfer to support. I’m not ready to change my opinion of his game yet though.
Ok, that’s it for this week! Have a question you’d like me to answer next week? Email me at joseph@thefriedegg.com!
